In the final men’s race at the Paris Olympics, the Chinese team made history by knocking off the United States in the 400 medley relay for the first time ever.

Four days after storming to individual gold in the 100 freestyle, Pan Zhanle blasted the fastest split in history at 47.59 to overtake U.S. anchor Hunter Armstrong and secure gold by more than a half-second.

Now, China enters the new quadrennium expected to add a world title in Singapore.

Veteran backstroker Xu Jiayu has been on a surge in recent years, capturing Olympic silver in the 100-meter race last year, while Qin Haiyang swept the breaststroke races at the 2023 World Championships, breaking the world record over 200 meters while moving to No. 2 all-time behind Adam Peaty in both shorter distances.

Qin struggled in his individual events in Paris but returned to split 57.98, quickest in the field, in the medley relay. Butterfly is typically the weak leg for China, but Chen Juner has a time of 51.03 to his credit already this year.

And of course, befotre his relay heroics, Pan clocked a stunning time of 46.40 for 100 freestyle gold.

The United States, meanwhile, loses the entire quartet that won silver in the medley relay in Paris. The group assembled based on the results of U.S. Nationals showed promise, particularly with Jack Alexy set to retake anchor duties after holding that position on the gold-medal-winning team at the 2023 World Championships, but the front half of the team is less certain.

Below are the added-up times for the top countries in this event. Only 2025 season-best times are used here, but limitations of this analysis will be considered.

• United States: Tommy Janton 53.00 + Campbell McKean 58.96 + Shaine Casas 50.51 + Jack Alexy 46.99 = 3:29.46

• Neutral Athletes B (Russia): Kliment Kolesnikov 52.04 + Ivan Kozhakin 59.31 + Andrei Minakov 50.82 + Egor Kornev 47.42 = 3:29.59

• China: Xu Jiayu 52.49 + Qin Haiyang 58.61 + Chen Juner 51.03 + Pan Zhanle 47.77 = 3:29.90

• France: Yohann Ndoye-Brouard 52.81 + Jérémie Delbois 1:00.17 + Maxime Grousset 50.11 + Rafael Fente Damers 48.02 = 3:31.11

• Great Britain: Oliver Morgan 52.12 + Greg Butler 59.93 + Edward Mildred 51.75 + Matt Richards 47.92 = 3:31.72

• Italy: Thomas Ceccon 52.84 + Ludovico Viberti 59.04 + Federico Burdisso 51.83 + Manuel Frigo 48.34 = 3:32.05

• Germany: Lukas Martens 54.18 + Lucas Matzerath 59.19 + Luka Armbruster 51.21 + Josha Salchow 48.02 = 3:32.60

• Australia: Joshua Edwards-Smith 54.28 + Nash Wilkes 1:00.19 + Matt Temple 51.00 + Kyle Chalmers 47.27 = 3:32.74

• Japan: Riku Matsuyama 53.99 + Yamato Fukazawa 59.24 + Naoki Mizunuma 51.47 + Katsuhiro Matsumoto 48.36 = 3:33.06

• Canada: Cole Pratt 54.27 + Oliver Dawson 1:00.73 + Ilya Kharun 50.37 + Ruslan Gaziev 48.37 = 3:33.74

In a surprise, China has only the third-best composite time, but the 3:29.90 is less than a half-second away from first place.

More importantly, Pan is listed here with a time of 47.77, his best this year but nowhere close to the 46.40 he swam on the way to gold in world-record time in Paris. Factor in that version of Pan, and China’s composite time drops all the way to 3:28.53. Make no mistake about which team should be favored to win a world title.

Rising U.S. breaststroker Campbell McKean — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

The big weakness for the United States will come on backstroke, with usual top options Ryan Murphy and Armstrong absent from the team.

Tommy Janton was the surprise winner of the event at Nationals in 53.00, but that puts him a full second behind some of his competition.

The U.S. coaching staff might also look to Casas on the backstroke leg, which would move Thomas Heilman (or possibly Dare Rose) into action on butterfly.

Rookie Campbell McKean finished the meet ranked No. 2 in the world in the 100 breast, but he will have to back that up on an even bigger stage. If not, Josh Matheny is available in reserve.

Russia is likely to win a medal in this event as its swimmers race in international long course competition for the first time since the Tokyo Olympics under the official title of “Neutral Athletes B.” A similarly-composed team won the short course world title in the event in December, setting a world record in the process.

Kliment Kolesikov and Miron Lifintsev are both gold-medal contenders in the 100 back, and then Ivan Kozhakin or Kirill Prigoda will have to hold down the breaststroke leg before Andrei Minakov and Egor Kornev try to finish off a medal-worthy performance.

Do not forget about France, the bronze-medal winners on home turf last year in Paris.

Yohann Ndoye-Brouard on backstroke and Maxime Grousset on butterfly are elite legs, and Leon Marchand can contribute a 58-second breaststroke split, which is not accounted for in the projection above. Rafael Fente Damers might have shown enough on freestyle to put his team solidly in the medal mix.

The top-four teams appear to be clear of the competition, but Britain could work its way into the medal hunt despite the absence of Adam Peaty.

Oliver Morgan has become one of the world’s best 100 backstrokers, and Matt Richards provides a powerful anchor split. Italy could have Olympic champions on the first two legs with Thomas Ceccon and Nicolo Martinenghi (although Ludovico Viberti edged Martinenghi at the Italian national championships earlier this year), but butterfly remains a major weakness.

Germany has the final three-quarters of a strong team, but the top backstroke option is Lukas Martens, who will be busy trying to collect medals in the mid-distance freestyle events. Australia has an inexperienced front half, but Matt Temple and particularly Kyle Chalmers could be tough down the stretch.