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The senior national team of Nigeria have been handed a lifeline in their bid to make it to the 2026 World Cup, which will take place in Canada, USA and Mexico, OwnGoalNigeria.com reports.

Nigeria are currently facing a tough time to finish as winners of their group, which will automatically guarantee them a spot at the tournament next year and even a second place finish which will see them go a inter confederation playoff isn’t looking bright.

Only the four best group runners-up will be drawn into play-offs to determine the CAF representative at the inter-confederation play-offs.

The play-off winner will join one team each from AFC, CONMEBOL and OFC and two from CONCACAF in the inter-confederation play-offs.

The teams will be ranked according to the FIFA Men’s World Ranking, with the four lowest-ranked teams playing in two single-elimination matches.

The winners will meet the two highest-ranked teams in another set of single-elimination matches, with the winners of these matches qualifying for the world cup.

It is in this area that a potential loophole has been opened for Nigeria to sneak in with the withdrawal of Eritrea from Group E, even without a ball was kicked leaving the group short by one, meaning they have five teams instead of six.

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What FIFA and other confederation have done in situations like this in the past is to deduct points from the lowest ranked team in each group, to make up for the lack of numbers in the other group.

An example cited in CAF / FIFA history.

In 2010 CAF World Cup qualification, was when this same Eritrea withdrew from their group and because other groups had full size, when ranking the runners-up (for the stage that selected “best runners-up”), the results against the group’s 4th-placed team were excluded for the groups that had the full number of teams.

That meant each runner-up was compared over the same number of matches (excluding matches vs. the lowest-team in groups that still had full membership).

CAF and UEFA have also used this same method in their regional tournaments in the event that a team’s withdrawal bring about an imbalance in the group as against other groups.

In the Euro 2016 qualifiers.

One group (Group 1) had five teams while others had six. UEFA’s rule for the “best third-placed team” was to discard matches against the sixth-placed team in the six-team groups so every team was compared over the same number of games.

UEFA used it in the 2022 World Cup qualifying Groups when they were unequal size (five vs six).

For seeding the ten runners-up into the play-off draw, UEFA discarded the runners-up’s results vs the sixth-placed team before applying points, goal difference, etc.

There’s also an older CAF (Africa) precedent: in the 2010 CAF second round, after Eritrea withdrew (and Ethiopia were excluded), CAF’s runners-up ranking ignored results against the fourth-placed team so comparisons were even across groups

So in practice, the Super Eagles who have already lost four points against current bottom of the table team in their group will likely sneak in ahead of teams from other groups, who picked maximum points against bottom oppositions.

However, the Super Eagles need to finish second for this to become a reality, and it’s only possible if they win their remaining two games in the qualifiers.

Mohammed Mowiz Suleiman