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The Louisville Cardinals’ No. 1 target in the class of 2026 has been trending, unfortunately, in the wrong direction, as the No. 1 player in the cycle recently took a visit to Kentucky this past weekend.

Louisville basketball was dominating the race for Tyran Stokes early in his recruiting, but the blue-blood programs have stepped up their recruiting game and continue to catch up to Pat Kelsey’s Cardinals.

Stokes is the consensus No. 1 overall prospect in the 2026 cycle and is Kelsey’s dream target.

The Cardinals jumped out to a hot start as Stokes is a Louisville native, and On3 Sports gave the Cardinals a dominant 66.7 percent chance to land Stokes, and the next closest team just a 1.9 percent chance.

However, since then, Kansas and Kentucky both earned official visits, and after the Wildcat’s crucial visit, the Cardinals lead continues to slip out of Louisville’s hands.

The Cardinals made their official offer to Stokes in November 2022 and then earned their first official visit from Stokes in October 2024.

The Louisville native appeared to be all in on the Cardinals, but the Cardinals’ in-state rival is now joining the party as Kentucky’s official visit seems to have gained massive ground on the Cardinals.

Kentucky had just a 1.9 percent chance of landing Stokes before their visit, but now, after the massive update, On3 Sports gives them the second-best chance, at 28.5 percent.

Louisville’s have now dropped from 66.7 percent to 42.7 percent after Stokes visited Kansas, to a 32.6 percent chance.

Louisville must continue to put the pedal to the medal for this rare 6-foot-7 forward, as he would be the highest commit in Cardinal history.

Stokes has earned over 28 offers and is expected to visit Gonzaga, Arkansas, and Oregon later this summer.

The junior averaged 21.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game for Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, Calif.

He also represented Team USA last summer, averaging 12.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1.1 blocks in the World Cup tournament.

It would be one thing to lose Stokes to another program, but the thought of letting him slip away to Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats is a nightmare scenario. Kelsey has to do everything in his power to land this hometown star and ensure Stokes is wearing red and black, not blue and white.

For all the latest on Louisville basketball’s offseason and recruiting, stay tuned.